Leopard Strategy - Siyu's Hybrid Stock Pick

2010-02-28T11:23:00.008-05:00

Update May10, WFMI

2007-05-10T11:55:00.000-04:00

Most of you know I haven't yet bought anything for a long time. I have a long watchlist, and none of them appears to be a value play for the last 3 months.Today, one of my all time favorites - Whole Foods (WFMI) jumps out. It suddenly went down over 10%, currently about $40.50. I just quickly checked out the triggers - lower profit due to new store openings, and potential difficult in getting

A quick notes

2007-04-26T23:36:00.000-04:00

Just a quick note to say hello to my regular readers, it has been a month since my last post. My wife and I went on a 10 days trip to Europe, including Berlin, Prague and Vienna, for our 6th wedding anniversary. It is good to be away for a while. We enjoyed it very much.The market couldn't be stronger - quite opposite to my prediction. I am still holding whatever I have a month ago. I have no

Jake, way to go.

2007-03-27T23:24:00.000-04:00

Has been a while since my last post. Quite immediately after my 2 recent trades (Sell ASFI and PALM), both stock had a strong ride - up about 30% - 40% in 2 months. My bad. I had a solid analysis (see here and here), bought at a low price, and set a reasonable target price ($18 for PALM, $40 for ASFI), but changed the mind and sold way too early with little profit.I hope you had followed my

A quick Portfolio Review

2007-03-07T23:41:00.000-05:00

A quick review starts from recent trading activities - I sold the remaining 1/3 RICK at $9.75 (bought at $6.6) , sold ASFI at $34.70 (bought at $32.30), and sold ESLR at $10.00 (bought at $7.7) recently, and here is my current holdings:Holdings:Large Cap (>10B): COPSmall Cap (<100m): MMG, UTK, DAGMMedium Cap (anything in between): OVTI, NTE, SCSSOthers: QIDRegarding PALM, it had an amazing ride,

The Fall

2007-02-28T00:25:00.000-05:00

I was, for the moment at 3pm yesterday, looking at the index board (our office has these electronic board hanging on the wall), and witnessed the 200 points fall in a matter of seconds. I do agree with this article that it may be caused by a system glitch. However, the Fall is real for the trading day...No intention to do "I said/warned so...", but on the record, In my recent portfolio review

Year of Golden Pig, RICK and Jae

2007-02-24T11:55:00.000-05:00

2007, year of Golden Pig, which symbolizes good luck and wealth, occurs once every 60 years. I wish you a happy new year. (comes later, last Saturday was the new year eve)First, let me review one of my recent transactions. I sold PALM (Palm) after Apple announces its iPhone entry into smartphone market, and bought ASFI (Asta Funding) as one of my picks in my Year 2007 Outlook Series.Both had a

A quick portfolio overview

2007-02-12T22:46:00.000-05:00

A quite volatile day on my portfolio.Both NTE and MMG are down over 5%, while RICK, ASFI, DAGM and OVTI are up over 5% today. This is the beauty of diversity, despite 2 disappointments, my portoflio hold well in an otherwise pretty weak market today.Let us take a moment to review all my stocks in my investment portfolio, and some recent transactions.Holdings:Large Cap (>10B): COPSmall Cap (<100m)

Sold PALM, Bought ASFI

2007-01-31T12:19:00.000-05:00

I just recommended PALM a few weeks ago, and my regular blog readers know that I usually will buy in and stay put for at least a few months. So why I am selling now?It is because of Apple. If you haven't watched Steve Jobs's keynotes 2007 about iPhone, go ahead and watch it. I noticed there are quite a handful of doubts on iPhone out there, I don't. iPhone has all the features that most users

Outlook 2007 - Part III - Debt Collection (ASFI)

2007-01-15T15:15:00.000-05:00

Today, I will discuss my second investment idea for 2007 - Financial Industry / Debt Sector. US consumers are generally under financial presure, and this plays a defensive hand if my overall economy prediction above turns to be true in 2007.The backdrop of this idea is US, the country as a whole, as well as its citizens will be facing unprecedented financial pressure. You can find some details

Investment Outlook 2007 - Part II - Energy (APA, CHK...)

2007-01-02T14:28:00.000-05:00

Let us review a part of my first investment idea for 2007 - energy: Invest Energy (e.g. Crude Oil), and Precious Metal Sector when price fluctuates.Before we dig into individual stocks, let's look at the following numbers to get a better understanding about the oil/gas industry. (numbers are quoted from BP Statistic Review of World Energy, a must read if you're interested in energy industry)

Investment Outlook 2007 - Part I

2007-01-01T08:33:00.000-05:00

I am mapping out my 2007 investment framework. A long shot, but planning before execution is vital to success, in my opinion.To begin with, this is not Dow/S&P index prediction for 2007. There are a handful of them, BusinessWeek for example, if you're interested. I have no clue where those indexes will settle in a year. And the truth is, the overall market trend is determined by many dynamic

RICK, New Year 2007

2006-12-30T23:49:00.000-05:00

To a few of you who recently concerned about RICK, I hope you had held tight, and enjoyed +20% ride in the last week. Recommending at $5.8 in my last post, I also bought an extra 1/2 unit, that is 20% profit, not bad for the last week of 2006.RICK posted a good fiscal 2006 report, with a promising future outlook. In short, this is a company with P/E less than 20, and with exponential growth

Portfolio Review and a Stock Idea - PNRA

2006-12-21T23:13:00.000-05:00

It has been 2 weeks since I wrote the last post. My family spent last weekend in Boston, visited our friends there, a lot of fun and great weather. I had a stock idea sparked from the trip, I will leave it to the end:-)A quick trading activities review for the last 2 weeks - I sold half NTE, sold remaining 1/3 IGLD, and bought PALM and RICK (Yes, RICK again), and here is my latest portfolio

Palm - Part II

2006-12-09T13:49:00.000-05:00

This is the second part of Palm (PALM) analysis. Note that during the week, I bought another 1/2 unit Palm (PALM) at $14.40. (I vote with my money)FinancialClosed at $14.54 on Friday, Palm is a 1.5B market cap company. Looking into its balance sheet, it has a good solid 760Million assets, including 500+M cash or cash equivalent and 260M deferred long term assets, which is the operating loss that

PALM - Part I

2006-12-05T23:47:00.000-05:00

I have a lot of respects for those companies that had a sucessful product before, then was defeated by others, and finally turned around after a few years with a new product and won the market again. I call them 2nd-time front runner.Being a 2nd-time front runner isn't easy - those companies usually have visionary and determined leaders, disciplined strategy, strong belief in their ideas and

Revisit Select Comfort (SCSS)

2006-12-01T23:25:00.000-05:00

Select Comfort (SCSS), one of my favorites in the portfolio, plunged over 18% on Thursday (hurts!) after an projected earning adjustment from $0.95 - $0.97 per share for 2006 to $0.80 - $0.87, citing its bed sales associations with weak house market. Reading the same filing, the management remains confident to deliver its long-term growth rate in 2007.A substantial adjustment like this from SCSS

Sold NTE, bought PALM, and COP

2006-11-29T22:34:00.000-05:00

I sold half my position in Nam Tai Electronics (NTE) at $16.37 today, and bought Palm (PALM) at $14.08. I continue to balance my portfolio allocation at 50% cash and 50% equity.NTE has a good ride, and go up over 30% since Sep. I have a uncertain feeling on this stock now - and decide to unload half of my position with a small loss (i bought around $17). I am very excited about the opportunity

A Tiny Gem - DAGM

2006-11-27T21:15:00.000-05:00

Mentioned in the last post that I have 2 exciting stock ideas to do further research and share with you. One of them is DAGM - DAG Media. It is a micro-cap $5.7 million company, which is by far the smallest one I have ever interested in. (Interested to know if you ever bought something smaller than this, and share with us the experience)It is in Yellow Page/Publish Directory business,

IGLD and RICK

2006-11-24T15:31:00.000-05:00

Sold 2/3 IGLD at average $9.70 this week, with over 80% profit in a few months. (thanks for introducing this stock to me, Jaewoo). In the meantime, I doubled my position in RICK at $6.72 - it is the largest holding in my portfolio now, with the average cost at around $6.60.If you haven't yet bought RICK, do your study, and take actions now! You simply won't have that many chances. It is a fast

MSFT Review and Portfolio Overview

2006-11-14T23:56:00.000-05:00

I recommended Microsoft (MSFT) on Apr30, 2006's post, when it was closed at 24.15. I considered that as a safe pick for conservative investors with a projected 8% to 12% annual return in the next 18-24 months.Check it out, MSFT is closed at $29.23 today, that is 21% return in less than 6 months! Quite rare for a super large-cap stock like MSFT, isn't it?I consolidated my portfolio and sold SCHN

CECO is up - Bought SCSS and UTK

2006-11-08T13:09:00.000-05:00

I mentioned in my Oct26 post that CECO was the only one in my watch list that went down, and I said:CECO was closed at $23.53 on 10/13, and closed at $21.05 today, down 10.5%....Will CECO be the next star in my watch list? I bet so. Well, don't let the stocks in my watch list go.It is trading at $24.50 now, 16% higher compared to 10/26 when I wrote the notes.Just let you know, I bought more SCSS

UTK #2

2006-11-05T08:13:00.000-05:00

I bought 1/3 invetment unit in both SCSS and UTK last week, at $20.50 and $13.99 respectively. Both closed at lower price on Friday, and they stayed in my watch list.Sam asked about UTK in the last post: You mentioned that you have UTK on your watchlist, but you didnt mention at what price it would be attractive to you. when are you planning to jump in, if at all?In long term, the price right

About UTK

2006-10-28T01:15:00.000-04:00

UTK was added to my watch list yesterday after an over 30% drop in one day solely due to an analysis report from http://sharesleuth.com/. A long story short - UTK business model is to acquire technology from university/lab at a low cost, and transfers to companies (usually micro-size/start-up) in exchange of the shares from them.The report challenges the background of those companies as well as

My Watch List: PLT, NVT and CECO

2006-10-26T22:11:00.000-04:00

In my last post 10/13, I mentioned 3 stocks in my watch list, they are: CECO, NVT, PLT.NVT was closed at $ $27.44 on 10/13, and closed at $33.59 today, up 22.4%.PLT was closed at $18.25 on 10/13, and closed at $21.33 today, up 17%.CECO was closed at $23.53 on 10/13, and closed at $21.05 today, down 10.5%.For both NVT and PLT, around 20% profit in 2 weeks, what a watch list! All these stocks in my

Just a quick notes...

2006-10-13T00:54:00.000-04:00

Dow hitting new high is the headline news everyday now, (as if it really matters). As a second thought, it does matter. Do you know the market hit the highest in 1987, right before the crash?.It may not happen this time. The truth is nobody really knows. But I do think the current market high comes too quick, and yet to prve that it is sustainable. And I continue to hold the bearish view on the

ANF and TGT

2006-09-21T21:39:00.000-04:00

I recommended ANF and TGT on 7/18, and said the following:ANF and TGT are both top players in their sectors, with proven track record, and steady growth rate. Better yet, both are undervalued, in my opinion, at least 20%. Plus, I expect them to release strong numbers for the 3rd quarter, in other words, both stocks will have a positive outlook in 3 months.Let us check it out. On July18, ANF was

Bought COP - Conoco Phillips

2006-09-13T21:52:00.000-04:00

In my last post, I said oil industry stocks are on our watch list, and I bought 100 shares COP at $59.28 today. Here are the reasons.1. Industry - Though oil price is influenced by many factors in short term, its long term price trend is primarily determined by supply and demand - if you ask me, supply can hardly catch demand in long term.2. Company - Third largest integrated oil company in the

What do you smell?

2006-09-06T23:37:00.000-04:00

Do you recall that many stocks plunged 5%, 10%, and even 20%+ in one day in the last 3 months - many of them are great companies at a fair price before the sudden drop. It happened more often than usual that the price drop was based on insignificant news, and overreacted. Just name a few, NTE, OVTI, ASEI, AET. And it happend again yesterday on KOMG, and today on MATK.All the names above are

NTE

2006-09-03T09:45:00.000-04:00

NTE's News release on Friday is brutal. In short, quarterly revenue stays flat, while its profit margin deteriorates sharply. As a result, 3rd EPS is estimated 20% - 25% lower than the same time period last year. In the meantime, it slashes annual sales growth projection by half from 25% to 12% in year 2007/8.Shares sank 23% on Friday, closed around $11.5. This stock is too cheap for me to give

TGT, ANF and NTE again

2006-08-16T23:21:00.000-04:00

ANF was closed at $63.2 today, about 20% higher than the price when I recommended on July18. Today's 14% jump is due to an unexpected strong 2nd quarter report and full year forecast. If you read my previous post, I predicted its strong numbers, and 20% stock price increase by 3Q. It came earlier than I expected. I sold all ANF shares today.TGT was closed at $49.3 today. I recommended when it

NTE

2006-08-02T21:54:00.000-04:00

What do you need most in this market right now? Cash and patience. You need both to get great deals. Here is one today.I recommended NTE a few days ago when it was around $20. It was closed at $16 today!This is a steal with virturally no downside risk. I bought a bunch, and double my position when it was $17. If you buy tomorrow, you will get a better deal than I do.The market has been irrational

TGT, ANF and NTE

2006-07-19T00:08:00.000-04:00

what's in common for the above 3 stocks?They all droppped around 5% today, for no obvious reasons. Well it sure has reason, check out this article. To me, this is a buying opportunity, big time.ANF and TGT are both top players in their sectors, with proven track record, and steady growth rate. Better yet, both are undervalued, in my opinion, at least 20%. Plus, I expect them to release strong

Stock Review - June 2006

2006-07-04T07:35:00.000-04:00

Here is the performance review of all the stocks that were recommended in this blog in March 2006. Pick date Price at pick Price (Jul3) % change MVK 4-Mar 49.51 63.46 28.18% ISSC 5-Mar 14.09 14.39 2.13% NTE 11-Mar 21.35 22.56 7.17% SIMG 24-Mar 10.42 10.85 4.13% PSUN 25-Mar 22.15 17.82 -19.55%

World Cup 2006 - ASEI

2006-06-24T14:20:00.000-04:00

For friends who visited here from time to time, I apologize for the long silence, and thank you for not giving me up! You probably figured out why, yes, alll my spare time goes to world cup 2006! Though Brazil is my all-time favorite team, I am cheering for world cup first-time finalist - Ghana now, a team with skill, talents and passion. A small cap, growth stock in world cup :-) Way to go!

PLT - Plantronics

2006-05-21T20:50:00.000-04:00

It was a tough week, Nasdaq and Dow went down 1.8% and 2% respectively, but if you followed my advice - AET, it went up 1.6% (opened on Monday at $39.6, closed on Friday at $40.25), and beats index by 3.5% in a week. Isn't it great?Do you see more and more people use wireless headset on the street, in the office or at home? It is not only cool, but also a productivity tool (free your both hands),

AET - Aetna

2006-05-13T20:26:00.000-04:00

Aetna, a health care industry company, operates in 3 segments. Health Care segment consists of health and dental plan.Group insurance segment offers life, disability, and long term care insurance products.Large case pension segment manages a variety of retirement products. Closed at $39.61 on 5/12, AET has a market cap of 22.5B. With P/E = 14, P/B= 2.15, It is

Starter kit for new investor

2006-05-03T23:57:00.000-04:00

One of my friends showed me a website that claims to "discover micro-cap stocks and help you make over 50% profit in short term", and ask me whether it is a good approach to start learning and buying individual stocks.While I don't know what is the best approach to learn equity investment, I do know the above approach doesn't work.Here are my thoughts for new investor who wants to learn equity

MSFT - Microsoft

2006-04-30T17:05:00.000-04:00

Once a while, I make an exception to discuss an elephant stock in my leopard portfolio.I am not a big fan of MSFT products. Browser I use FireFox, Search I use google, investment research I use Yahoo. MSFT don't have user-friendly or innovative products but they are diligent follower with great judgement - though never invented boat, they remarkably don't miss the boat . Here are the examples:1.

Stock Review - April 2006

2006-04-28T21:58:00.000-04:00

Here is the performance review of my five stock picks duringMarch 2006. Pick date Price at pick Price (Apr28) % change MVK 4-Mar 49.51 54.42 9.92% ISSC 5-Mar 14.09 15.82 12.28% NTE 11-Mar 21.35 22.58 7.26% SIMG 24-Mar 10.42 10.20 -2.11% PSUN 25-Mar 22.15 23.30 5.19% 6.84%

ANF - Abercrombie & Fitch

2006-04-21T23:11:00.000-04:00

Abercromibie & Fitch, a speciality retailer that sells causal apparel, has a total of 4 brands, and each target a defined customer base varied by age (14 to 35), and location (west to east coast).It successfully rolled out 2 new brands (Hollister in 2000, Ruchl in 2004), and maintains an average 20% revenue growth in the last 6 years. In conjuction with the high growth, it maintains an operating

COBR - Can Nav One 4500 Help?

2006-04-16T16:01:00.000-04:00

Cobra - a manufacturer of navigation/communication product. It first caught my eyes by its stunning financial figures: P/E=6, P/B= 0.97. Is it super-cheap?NumbersA deep look into its finanical statement, its P/E is distorted by a one-time annuity income in 2005, which contributed 10 million out of 13.5million income. After adjustment, its real P/E is around 25. Its low P/B rate is also justified

Get most rewards from your Credit Card

2006-04-15T20:30:00.000-04:00

It is off topic, but a part of financial planning.I have a Citi Dividend Platinum Select Credit Card, it offers generous cash back (5% on drug store, grocery store and gas station, and 1% everything else). Great card, no annual fees and no complicated tiered structure. Only a little problem now, as its reward is capped at $300 each year - that's the reason I did a quick research today, and find

3 Security Stocks pick from Dr. Ge

2006-04-14T16:03:00.000-04:00

COGT, WBSN and SFNT - 3 security stocks pick from Dr. Ge, and here is the original blog. I like security industry, and I like distressed stocks, a combination of both - It certainly is worth a research. I took a quick look, and posted my comment in Dr. Ge's blog. Interested in 2 of them, I decided to post my thoughts here too, for further follow-ups.Finance COGT: Competitive Return on Eqity/Asset

Stock Review - March 2006

2006-04-01T10:16:00.003-05:00

Here is the performance review of my 5-stock picks during March 2006. I will try to review the group performance on a monthly basis. Pick date Price at pick Price (Mar31) % change MVK 4-Mar 49.51 52.99 7.03% ISSC 5-Mar 14.09 13 -7.74% NTE 11-Mar 21.35 22.91 8.85% * SIMG 24-Mar 10.42 10.31 -1.06%

PSUN - A contrarian pick

2006-03-25T16:51:00.000-05:00

Pacific Sunwear - a specialty retailer of everyday casual apparel, footwear and accessories primarily for teen between age 12 - 24. It operates 3 brand mall-based chain store under the name "PacSun", "PacSun Outlet", and "d.e.m.o". PSUN fashion influence is driven by snowboarding, skateboarding, surfing and companies that are associated with the sports (e.g. VLCM)In the last 3 years, PSUN is a

SIMG - Follow OVTI's footstep?

2006-03-24T22:44:00.000-05:00

SIMG - a semiconductor company has 3 lines of products - Consumer Electronic, Storage (one new product below - SteelVine System) and Display/PC (see right diagram - SiI 1364 transmitter). Its chip delivers the digital contents in a secure, and high speed way to the device (TV, LCD, etc). SIMG is also one of the founders to a group that promotes HDMI standard. SIMG has a number of IPs in HDMI and

NTE - Nam Tai Electronics

2006-03-11T21:37:00.000-05:00

NTE - Nam Tai Electronics manufactures and designs electronic components to original equipment manufacturer. Products include LCD panels, LCD modules, radio frequency modules, circuit subassemblies, and image sensor modules. Though the company specializes in one of the technology areas, its products already fall into commodities. However, the company keeps its operating margin stable at around 8%

ISSC - A cash cow that we bring back home

2006-03-05T23:41:00.000-05:00

ISSC - a company develops and manufactures cockpit related equipment, including flat panel display, flight information and monitoring systems, etc. At market cap of $254M, this company has a total of $82M in cash, with virtually no debt. Though the company didn't demonstrate a continuously steady growth pattern, it manages to maintain an average annual revenue growth of 40% in 2004 and 2005. A

MVK - Maverick Tube

2006-03-04T21:50:00.000-05:00

MVK - a company manufactures pipe/tube for energy industry and industrial application. With subsequent M&A activities since 2002, it is transforming itself from a steel/iron tube manufacturer to an oil/equipment service provider (rig). Furthermore, it is a remarkable thing that MVK reports a net income of 1.5 dollar per share for 4th quarter 2005. Traded at $49, its forward P/E is 8.Given its 1/4

Leopard Strategy - a hybrid of growth and value

2006-03-04T20:00:00.001-05:00

More often than not, "value" stock is an aging toothless elephant that can hardly move - large in size, but hollow inside, and lack of the most valuable assets - teeth; on the other side, "growth" stock is fish egg that has huge growth potential, but nature does the justice that very few egg ultimately realizes its dream.Leopard is the hybrid of growth and value, it has fish egg's agility but not